Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?
Closes January 1, 2027
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$184K
Liquidity
$74K
Bid / Ask
85% / 85%
Spread
0.20pp
Expert Signal
85%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch?
11 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
91% YES
Mar 9, 2026
Trough probability
76% YES — lowest in period
Mar 11, 2026
Biggest move: -14.0pp
90% → 76%
Mar 11, 2026
Peak probability
97% YES — highest in period
Mar 17, 2026
Current
85% YES (+2.0pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-0.4%
EV per $ wagered
+2.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?" at 85% YES / 15% NO. In the last 24 hours, $184K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 85%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2027.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 85%, NO 15%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1534638
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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