Markets/Critical Discord Incident by June 30, 2026?

Critical Discord Incident by June 30, 2026?

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 12:03 PM UTC

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

74%YES

27%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

$385

Bid / Ask

55% / 92%

Spread

37.00pp

Expert Signal

74%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+17.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

58% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Biggest move: -30.5pp

87% → 56%

Mar 14, 2026

Peak probability

89% YES — highest in period

Mar 12, 2026

Current

75% YES (-3.5pp recent)

Mar 14, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 74%99%

Buy YES@ 74¢

Edge

+0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.9%

½ Kelly0.9%

Buy NO@ 27¢

-1.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Critical Discord Incident by June 30, 2026?" at 74% YES / 26% NO. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 74%. The bid-ask spread is 37.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Critical Discord Incident by June 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 74%, NO 26%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1183518