Markets/Databricks IPO before 2027?

Databricks IPO before 2027?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 03:49 PM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

30%YES

70%NO

Volume 24h

$68K

Liquidity

$4K

Bid / Ask

28% / 32%

Spread

4.00pp

Expert Signal

30%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+4.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

27% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Trough probability

21% YES — lowest in period

Mar 21, 2026

Biggest move: +10.5pp

27% → 37%

Mar 14, 2026

Peak probability

37% YES — highest in period

Mar 14, 2026

Current

31% YES (-0.5pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 30%99%

Buy YES@ 30¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 70¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Databricks IPO before 2027?" at 30% YES / 70% NO. In the last 24 hours, $68K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 30%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Databricks IPO before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 30%, NO 70%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/676796