Dota 2: MOUZ vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffs
Closes March 27, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$559K
Liquidity
$40K
Bid / Ask
40% / 41%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
38%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
63% YES
Mar 27, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
48%
Mar 27, 2026
Biggest move: -24.0pp
72% → 48%
Mar 27, 2026
Peak probability
72% YES — highest in period
Mar 27, 2026
Current
48% YES (-24.0pp recent)
Mar 27, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.3%
EV per $ wagered
-0.8%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Dota 2: MOUZ vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffs" at 38% YES / 62% NO. In the last 24 hours, $559K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 38%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 27, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-27). "Dota 2: MOUZ vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffs." Prediction market snapshot: YES 38%, NO 62%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1720980
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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