Markets/Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 03:11 PM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

17%YES

84%NO

Volume 24h

$28

Liquidity

$20K

Bid / Ask

15% / 18%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

17%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-2.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

18% YES

Mar 2, 2026

Biggest move: +5.5pp

19% → 25%

Mar 7, 2026

Peak probability

25% YES — highest in period

Mar 7, 2026

Current

15% YES (-2.0pp recent)

Mar 19, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 17%99%

Buy YES@ 17¢

Edge

+3.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 84¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+3.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?" at 17% YES / 83% NO. In the last 24 hours, $28 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 17%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 17%, NO 83%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/677147