Markets/Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 08:57 PM UTC

Closes March 31, 2026

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

40%YES

60%NO

Volume 24h

$166K

Liquidity

$87K

Bid / Ask

39% / 40%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

40%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-17.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

57% YES

Mar 16, 2026

Trough probability

21% YES — lowest in period

Mar 16, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

21%

Mar 16, 2026

Biggest move: +22.5pp

21% → 44%

Mar 17, 2026

Current

40% YES (-0.5pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 40%99%

Buy YES@ 40¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 60¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?" at 40% YES / 60% NO. In the last 24 hours, $166K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 40%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 40%, NO 60%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1611267