Markets/Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?

Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 09:08 PM UTC

Closes January 1, 2027

Polymarket Price

37%YES

63%NO

Volume 24h

$264

Liquidity

$6K

Bid / Ask

36% / 38%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

37%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-46.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

80% YES

Feb 21, 2026

Trough probability

28% YES — lowest in period

Mar 19, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

43%

Mar 9, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

30%

Mar 18, 2026

Biggest move: -55.5pp

84% → 28%

Mar 18, 2026

Peak probability

96% YES — highest in period

Mar 11, 2026

Current

34% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 37%99%

Buy YES@ 37¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 63¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?" at 37% YES / 63% NO. In the last 24 hours, $264 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 37%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2027.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 37%, NO 63%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/691547