Markets/Nick Richards: Points O/U 9.5

Nick Richards: Points O/U 9.5

Data as of Mar 27, 2026, 10:04 PM UTC

Closes March 28, 2026

Polymarket Price

27%YES

73%NO

Volume 24h

$3K

Liquidity

$4K

Bid / Ask

8% / 46%

Spread

38.00pp

Expert Signal

27%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+11.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

16% YES

Mar 27, 2026

Biggest move: +10.5pp

17% → 27%

Mar 27, 2026

Current

27% YES (+10.5pp recent)

Mar 27, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 27%99%

Buy YES@ 27¢

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EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 73¢

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EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Nick Richards: Points O/U 9.5" at 27% YES / 73% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 27%. The bid-ask spread is 38.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 28, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-27). "Nick Richards: Points O/U 9.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 27%, NO 73%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1738935

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