Markets/Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30?

Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30?

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 11:06 PM UTC

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

0%YES

100%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+100.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+3.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

9% YES

Mar 3, 2026

Peak probability

17% YES — highest in period

Mar 3, 2026

Current

12% YES (+1.0pp recent)

Mar 4, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 1%99%

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EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/592882

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