Markets/OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?

OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 04:14 PM UTC

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

5%YES

95%NO

Volume 24h

$45

Liquidity

$6K

Bid / Ask

4% / 6%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.9pp

Key Moments

First recorded

4% YES

Mar 4, 2026

Current

5% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 6, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 5%99%

Buy YES@ 5¢

-8.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 95¢

Edge

+0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly8.3%

½ Kelly4.1%

Buy NO—+0.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 8.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $45 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/670370

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