Markets/Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 07:33 AM UTC

Closes January 1, 2028

Polymarket Price

52%YES

49%NO

Volume 24h

$462

Liquidity

$36K

Bid / Ask

51% / 52%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

52%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+13.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

44% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

53%

Mar 4, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

56%

Mar 6, 2026

Biggest move: +13.0pp

44% → 57%

Mar 6, 2026

Peak probability

63% YES — highest in period

Mar 7, 2026

Current

56% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 8, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 52%99%

Buy YES@ 52¢

Edge

+1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.0%

½ Kelly0.5%

Buy NO@ 49¢

-1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?" at 52% YES / 48% NO. In the last 24 hours, $462 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 52%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2028.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 52%, NO 48%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1393318