Markets/Services Down Parlay

Services Down Parlay

Data as of Mar 24, 2026, 06:13 AM UTC

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

16%YES

84%NO

Volume 24h

$38

Liquidity

$2K

Bid / Ask

9% / 23%

Spread

14.00pp

Expert Signal

16%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-3.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

19% YES

Mar 2, 2026

Trough probability

8% YES — lowest in period

Mar 18, 2026

Biggest move: +29.5pp

12% → 42%

Mar 21, 2026

Peak probability

42% YES — highest in period

Mar 21, 2026

Current

15% YES (+1.0pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 16%99%

Buy YES@ 16¢

Edge

+1.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.3%

½ Kelly0.1%

Buy NO@ 84¢

-0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Services Down Parlay" at 16% YES / 84% NO. In the last 24 hours, $38 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 16%. The bid-ask spread is 14.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Services Down Parlay." Prediction market snapshot: YES 16%, NO 84%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1363808