Markets/Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)

Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)

Data as of Mar 24, 2026, 09:20 AM UTC

Closes March 25, 2026

Polymarket Price

53%YES

47%NO

Volume 24h

$74K

Liquidity

$22K

Bid / Ask

52% / 54%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

53%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)

Full event →

1H Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)

77%

Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)

53%

Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)

49%

3 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+1.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

52% YES

Mar 24, 2026

Current

53% YES (-0.5pp recent)

Mar 24, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 53%99%

Buy YES@ 53¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 47¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)" at 53% YES / 47% NO. In the last 24 hours, $74K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 53%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 25, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 53%, NO 47%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1698371

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