Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Spread: Ducks (-1.5)
Closed March 25, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$12K
Liquidity
$4K
Expert Signal
98%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
50% YES
Mar 23, 2026
Trough probability
22% YES — lowest in period
Mar 25, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
40%
Mar 23, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
100%
Mar 25, 2026
Biggest move: +68.5pp
32% → 100%
Mar 25, 2026
Current
100% YES (+68.5pp recent)
Mar 25, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-1.8%
EV per $ wagered
+0.7%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Ducks (-1.5)" at 28% YES / 72% NO. In the last 24 hours, $12K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on March 25, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-25). "Spread: Ducks (-1.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 28%, NO 72%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1691816
Go Deeper
Entity Hub
All related markets, signals, and news in one view.
Forecaster Signals
See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.
Venue Divergence
Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.
Correlated Markets
Markets whose prices move with this one.
Event Cluster
All markets about the same event across venues.
Download 90d CSV
Full price history for your own analysis.