Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Spread: Jazz (-3.5)
Closed March 26, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$324K
Liquidity
$194
Bid / Ask
1% / 80%
Spread
79.00pp
Expert Signal
49%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Spread: Jazz (-3.5)
4 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
52% YES
Mar 25, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
49%
Mar 26, 2026
Biggest move: -40.0pp
50% → 10%
Mar 26, 2026
Current
10% YES (-40.0pp recent)
Mar 26, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.0%
EV per $ wagered
-1.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Jazz (-3.5)" at 49% YES / 51% NO. In the last 24 hours, $324K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 49%. The bid-ask spread is 79.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 26, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-26). "Spread: Jazz (-3.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 49%, NO 51%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1718874
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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