Markets/Spread: Kings (-5.5)

Spread: Kings (-5.5)

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 04:35 PM UTC

Closes March 22, 2026

Polymarket Price

54%YES

46%NO

Volume 24h

$55K

Liquidity

$56K

Bid / Ask

53% / 55%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

54%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Spread: Kings (-4.5)

Full event →

Spread: Kings (-4.5)

57%

Spread: Kings (-5.5)

54%

Spread: Kings (-6.5)

50%

3 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+0.0pp

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 54%99%

Buy YES@ 54¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 46¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Kings (-5.5)" at 54% YES / 46% NO. In the last 24 hours, $55K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 54%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 22, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Spread: Kings (-5.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 54%, NO 46%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1680423

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