Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-8.5)
Closed March 27, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$360K
Liquidity
$5K
Bid / Ask
70% / 79%
Spread
9.00pp
Expert Signal
54%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-9.5)
6 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
55% YES
Mar 27, 2026
Trough probability
38% YES — lowest in period
Mar 28, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
38%
Mar 28, 2026
Biggest move: -15.5pp
54% → 38%
Mar 28, 2026
Current
48% YES (+10.0pp recent)
Mar 28, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.7%
EV per $ wagered
-1.7%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-8.5)" at 71% YES / 29% NO. In the last 24 hours, $360K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 54%. The bid-ask spread is 9.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 27, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-28). "Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-8.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 71%, NO 29%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1719237
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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