Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Spread: Nuggets (-19.5)
Closed March 28, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$920K
Liquidity
$8K
Bid / Ask
7% / 15%
Spread
8.00pp
Expert Signal
9%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Spread: Nuggets (-18.5)
5 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
49% YES
Mar 27, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
51%
Mar 28, 2026
Biggest move: -9.5pp
52% → 42%
Mar 28, 2026
Current
42% YES (-9.5pp recent)
Mar 28, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Nuggets (-19.5)" at 9% YES / 91% NO. In the last 24 hours, $920K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 9%. The bid-ask spread is 8.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 28, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-28). "Spread: Nuggets (-19.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 9%, NO 91%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1746830
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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