Markets/Spread: Raptors (-12.5)

Spread: Raptors (-12.5)

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 06:39 PM UTC

Closes March 24, 2026

Polymarket Price

42%YES

59%NO

Volume 24h

$481K

Liquidity

$270K

Bid / Ask

41% / 42%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

42%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-4.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

50% YES

Mar 23, 2026

Current

46% YES (-4.0pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 42%99%

Buy YES@ 42¢

Edge

+1.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.9%

½ Kelly0.4%

Buy NO@ 59¢

-0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Raptors (-12.5)" at 42% YES / 58% NO. In the last 24 hours, $481K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 42%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 24, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Spread: Raptors (-12.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 42%, NO 58%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1687188

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