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Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Spread: St. John's Red Storm (-3.5)

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Spread: St. John's Red Storm (-3.5)

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 10:46 PM UTC

Closed March 22, 2026

Polymarket Price

70%YES

31%NO

Volume 24h

$653K

Liquidity

$47K

Bid / Ask

61% / 63%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

70%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Spread: St. John's Red Storm (-3.5)

Full event →

St. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas Jayhawks

85%

Spread: St. John's Red Storm (-3.5)

71%

Spread: St. John's Red Storm (-7.5)

64%

Spread: St. John's Red Storm (-6.5)

59%

St. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas Jayhawks: O/U

57%

Spread: St. John's Red Storm (-5.5)

52%

St. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas Jayhawks: O/U

33%

St. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas Jayhawks: O/U

30%

St. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas Jayhawks: O/U

22%

9 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+4.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

51% YES

Mar 22, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

50%

Mar 22, 2026

Biggest move: +5.0pp

50% → 55%

Mar 22, 2026

Current

55% YES (+5.0pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 70%99%

Buy YES@ 70¢

Edge

+0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.6%

½ Kelly0.8%

Buy NO@ 31¢

-1.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: St. John's Red Storm (-3.5)" at 70% YES / 30% NO. In the last 24 hours, $653K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 70%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 22, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Spread: St. John's Red Storm (-3.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 70%, NO 30%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1669457

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