Markets/Spread: Thunder (-16.5)

Spread: Thunder (-16.5)

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 07:38 PM UTC

Closes March 23, 2026

Polymarket Price

48%YES

52%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$35K

Bid / Ask

47% / 49%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

48%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.5pp

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 48%99%

Buy YES@ 48¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 52¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Thunder (-16.5)" at 48% YES / 52% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 48%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Spread: Thunder (-16.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 48%, NO 52%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1691789

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