US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?
Closes March 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$7K
Liquidity
$10K
Bid / Ask
4% / 5%
Spread
0.60pp
Expert Signal
4%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
64% YES
Mar 5, 2026
Trough probability
56% YES — lowest in period
Mar 5, 2026
Current
60% YES (-1.0pp recent)
Mar 5, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-7.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $7K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.60 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1493939
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