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Markets/US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?
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US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?

Polymarket Price

0%YES
100%NO

Volume 24h

$3.5M

Liquidity

$0

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 1%99%
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Buy NO@ 99¢

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EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3.5M has been traded.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1466012