Markets/Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 09:32 PM UTC

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

6%YES

95%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

$2K

Bid / Ask

3% / 8%

Spread

5.20pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-5.9pp

Key Moments

First recorded

10% YES

Mar 2, 2026

Trough probability

4% YES — lowest in period

Mar 6, 2026

Biggest move: -5.2pp

10% → 5%

Mar 5, 2026

Current

4% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 6, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 6%99%

Buy YES@ 6¢

Edge

+9.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 95¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+9.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by June 30?" at 6% YES / 94% NO. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 5.20 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by June 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/996330

Go Deeper

⬡

Entity Hub

All related markets, signals, and news in one view.

◎

Forecaster Signals

See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.

⇄

Venue Divergence

Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.

Correlated Markets

Markets whose prices move with this one.