Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
Closes March 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$117K
Liquidity
$19K
Bid / Ask
4% / 6%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
28% YES
Feb 28, 2026
Trough probability
1% YES — lowest in period
Mar 26, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
51%
Mar 16, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
50%
Mar 18, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
44%
Mar 20, 2026
Biggest move: +29.0pp
36% → 65%
Mar 18, 2026
Peak probability
71% YES — highest in period
Mar 18, 2026
Current
2% YES (+0.2pp recent)
Mar 26, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+2.6%
EV per $ wagered
-0.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $117K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-26). "Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1004798
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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