Markets/Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 06:26 PM UTC

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

37%YES

63%NO

Volume 24h

$54

Liquidity

$3K

Bid / Ask

35% / 39%

Spread

4.00pp

Expert Signal

37%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-12.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

50% YES

Mar 1, 2026

Trough probability

28% YES — lowest in period

Mar 18, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

51%

Mar 1, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

30%

Mar 18, 2026

Biggest move: -26.5pp

55% → 28%

Mar 18, 2026

Current

38% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 37%99%

Buy YES@ 37¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 63¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?" at 37% YES / 63% NO. In the last 24 hours, $54 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 37%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 37%, NO 63%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1285586