Markets/Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?

Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 09:30 PM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

10%YES

90%NO

Volume 24h

$23

Liquidity

$3K

Bid / Ask

9% / 12%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

10%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-3.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

13% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Biggest move: +6.0pp

13% → 19%

Mar 1, 2026

Peak probability

21% YES — highest in period

Mar 1, 2026

Current

10% YES (-1.5pp recent)

Mar 17, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 10%99%

Buy YES@ 10¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 90¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?" at 10% YES / 90% NO. In the last 24 hours, $23 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 10%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 10%, NO 90%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/700397