Markets/Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 09:32 PM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

5%YES

95%NO

Volume 24h

$853

Liquidity

$14K

Bid / Ask

5% / 5%

Spread

0.30pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.7pp

Key Moments

First recorded

4% YES

Feb 22, 2026

Biggest move: +5.8pp

5% → 11%

Feb 27, 2026

Peak probability

11% YES — highest in period

Feb 27, 2026

Current

5% YES (+0.1pp recent)

Mar 19, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 5%99%

Buy YES@ 5¢

-2.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 95¢

Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly2.9%

½ Kelly1.5%

Buy NO—+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 2.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $853 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1321564