Markets/Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 08:26 PM UTC

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

7%YES

93%NO

Volume 24h

$5K

Liquidity

$51K

Bid / Ask

7% / 8%

Spread

0.50pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-8.6pp

Key Moments

First recorded

16% YES

Mar 1, 2026

Trough probability

7% YES — lowest in period

Mar 20, 2026

Current

7% YES (+0.1pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 7%99%

Buy YES@ 7¢

-3.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 93¢

Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly3.4%

½ Kelly1.7%

Buy NO—+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 3.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?" at 7% YES / 93% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 7%. The bid-ask spread is 0.50 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 7%, NO 93%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/631183