Markets/Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?

Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 05:46 PM UTC

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

11%YES

89%NO

Volume 24h

$213

Liquidity

$1K

Bid / Ask

3% / 18%

Spread

14.60pp

Expert Signal

11%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+4.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

56% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Biggest move: +17.0pp

65% → 82%

Mar 1, 2026

Peak probability

86% YES — highest in period

Mar 1, 2026

Current

61% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 5, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 11%99%

Buy YES@ 11¢

Edge

+2.8%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.3%

½ Kelly0.2%

Buy NO@ 89¢

-0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+2.8% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?" at 11% YES / 89% NO. In the last 24 hours, $213 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 11%. The bid-ask spread is 14.60 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 11%, NO 89%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/693776