Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
Closes May 27, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$60K
Liquidity
$607K
Bid / Ask
88% / 89%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
89%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
2025
5 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
59% YES
Feb 21, 2026
Biggest move: +16.0pp
66% → 82%
Mar 4, 2026
Peak probability
92% YES — highest in period
Mar 14, 2026
Current
89% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.6%
EV per $ wagered
-4.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?" at 89% YES / 11% NO. In the last 24 hours, $60K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 89%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on May 27, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 89%, NO 11%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/566187
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
All markets about the same event across venues.
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