Markets/Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 10:10 PM UTC

Closes October 4, 2026

Polymarket Price

8%YES

92%NO

Volume 24h

$569

Liquidity

$10K

Bid / Ask

11% / 13%

Spread

1.20pp

Expert Signal

12%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the first…

2026

Full event →

Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place

64%

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in seco

14%

Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in se

Will Fernando Haddad finish in second place i

Will Renan Santos finish in second place in t

Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the

Will Geraldo Alckmin finish in second place i

Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second pla

Will Camilo Santana finish in second place in

Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in second place in

Will Jair Bolsonaro finish in second place in

Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in second plac

Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish in second place

13 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-2.3pp

Key Moments

First recorded

9% YES

Mar 14, 2026

Trough probability

2% YES — lowest in period

Mar 20, 2026

Biggest move: +13.2pp

2% → 15%

Mar 21, 2026

Peak probability

15% YES — highest in period

Mar 21, 2026

Current

7% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 8%99%

Buy YES@ 8¢

-3.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 92¢

Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly3.0%

½ Kelly1.5%

Buy NO—+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 3.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" at 8% YES / 92% NO. In the last 24 hours, $569 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 12%. The bid-ask spread is 1.20 percentage points. The market closes on October 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 8%, NO 92%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1365859