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Will Chung Jin-suk win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?

Closes June 3, 2026

Polymarket Price

0%YES
100%NO

Volume 24h

$502

Liquidity

$10K

Bid / Ask

0% / 0%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+100.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Lee Un-ju win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province…

2026

Full event →
the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial elect
87%
the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatoria
81%
the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Elec
74%
the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Elec
20%
the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial elect
12%
the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatoria
11%
the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatoria
6%
the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Elec
2%
the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Elec
2%
the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial elect
1%
the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatoria
1%
the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatoria
1%
the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatoria
0%
the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatoria
0%
the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial elect
0%
the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatoria
0%
the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial elect
0%
the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatoria
0%
the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Elec
0%
the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Elec
0%
the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Elec
0%
the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Elec
0%
the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Elec
0%
the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Elec
0%
the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial elect
0%
the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial elect
0%
the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial elect
0%
the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Elec
0%
the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Elec
0%
the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial elect
0%
the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Elec
0%
the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Elec
0%

32 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+0.0pp

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 1%99%
Buy YES@ 1¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Chung Jin-suk win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $502 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on June 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-28). "Will Chung Jin-suk win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/687272