Markets/Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup?

Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 09:06 PM UTC

Closes December 19, 2026

Polymarket Price

4%YES

96%NO

Volume 24h

$140K

Liquidity

$44K

Bid / Ask

4% / 5%

Spread

1.10pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will San Diego FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?

2026

10 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+1.3pp

Key Moments

First recorded

3% YES

Mar 11, 2026

Current

4% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 4%99%

Buy YES@ 4¢

-5.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 96¢

Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly5.9%

½ Kelly2.9%

Buy NO—+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 5.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $140K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 7%. The bid-ask spread is 1.10 percentage points. The market closes on December 19, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1349149

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Venue Divergence

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Correlated Markets

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