Markets/Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 10:07 PM UTC

Closes April 4, 2026

Polymarket Price

3%YES

97%NO

Volume 24h

$320K

Liquidity

$150K

Bid / Ask

4% / 4%

Spread

0.30pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

2026

Full event →

the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

17%

the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

7 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-1.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

4% YES

Mar 9, 2026

Current

3% YES (-0.1pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 3%99%

Buy YES@ 3¢

Edge

+1.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.1%

½ Kelly0.0%

Buy NO@ 97¢

-0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $320K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on April 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/658945