Markets/Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 09:31 PM UTC

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

8%YES

92%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

$9K

Bid / Ask

8% / 9%

Spread

0.50pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-11.8pp

Key Moments

First recorded

21% YES

Mar 1, 2026

Trough probability

8% YES — lowest in period

Mar 17, 2026

Biggest move: -9.0pp

19% → 10%

Mar 5, 2026

Current

9% YES (+1.1pp recent)

Mar 17, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 8%99%

Buy YES@ 8¢

-3.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 92¢

Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly3.6%

½ Kelly1.8%

Buy NO—+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 3.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30?" at 8% YES / 92% NO. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 8%. The bid-ask spread is 0.50 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 8%, NO 92%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/996325