Markets/Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI?

Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI?

Data as of Mar 24, 2026, 08:24 AM UTC

Closes July 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

88%YES

12%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$25K

Bid / Ask

79% / 82%

Spread

3.40pp

Expert Signal

88%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-1.2pp

Key Moments

First recorded

92% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Current

90% YES (+0.3pp recent)

Mar 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 88%99%

Buy YES@ 88¢

Edge

+0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly2.8%

½ Kelly1.4%

Buy NO@ 12¢

-2.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 2.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI?" at 88% YES / 12% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 88%. The bid-ask spread is 3.40 percentage points. The market closes on July 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 88%, NO 12%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1117522

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