Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
Closes September 13, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$739
Liquidity
$9K
Bid / Ask
1% / 3%
Spread
1.60pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
10 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
1% YES
Mar 19, 2026
Current
1% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 19, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+17.6%
EV per $ wagered
-0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $739 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 1.60 percentage points. The market closes on September 13, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1193096
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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