Markets/Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s US Open?

Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s US Open?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 12:03 PM UTC

Closes September 13, 2026

Polymarket Price

21%YES

80%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

$24K

Bid / Ask

19% / 23%

Spread

4.00pp

Expert Signal

21%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

8% YES

Mar 12, 2026

Current

9% YES (-0.1pp recent)

Mar 13, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 21%99%

Buy YES@ 21¢

Edge

+2.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 80¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+2.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s US Open?" at 21% YES / 79% NO. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 21%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00 percentage points. The market closes on September 13, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s US Open?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 21%, NO 79%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1088656

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