Markets/Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 11:56 AM UTC

Closes March 25, 2026

Polymarket Price

7%YES

93%NO

Volume 24h

$165K

Liquidity

$13K

Bid / Ask

7% / 7%

Spread

0.60pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.1pp

Key Moments

First recorded

7% YES

Mar 22, 2026

Current

7% YES (+0.5pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 7%99%

Buy YES@ 7¢

-0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 93¢

Edge

+0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.7%

½ Kelly0.4%

Buy NO—+0.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?" at 7% YES / 93% NO. In the last 24 hours, $165K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 7%. The bid-ask spread is 0.60 percentage points. The market closes on March 25, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 7%, NO 93%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1672922

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