Markets/Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in March 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in March 2026?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 10:39 AM UTC

Closes April 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

63%YES

37%NO

Volume 24h

$4K

Liquidity

$3K

Bid / Ask

62% / 64%

Spread

1.50pp

Expert Signal

49%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+2.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

61% YES

Mar 10, 2026

Trough probability

36% YES — lowest in period

Mar 16, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

48%

Mar 15, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

53%

Mar 19, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

46%

Mar 20, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

50%

Mar 22, 2026

Biggest move: +13.8pp

41% → 55%

Mar 19, 2026

Current

63% YES (-2.5pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 63%99%

Buy YES@ 63¢

Edge

+0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.1%

½ Kelly0.1%

Buy NO@ 37¢

-0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in March 2026?" at 63% YES / 37% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 49%. The bid-ask spread is 1.50 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in March 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 63%, NO 37%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1255896