Markets/Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 03:55 PM UTC

Closes March 24, 2026

Polymarket Price

14%YES

86%NO

Volume 24h

$115K

Liquidity

$41K

Bid / Ask

9% / 10%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

14%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-14.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

26% YES

Mar 9, 2026

Trough probability

5% YES — lowest in period

Mar 18, 2026

Biggest move: -17.5pp

26% → 8%

Mar 10, 2026

Current

12% YES (-4.0pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 14%99%

Buy YES@ 14¢

-3.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 86¢

Edge

+0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly3.4%

½ Kelly1.7%

Buy NO—+0.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 3.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?" at 14% YES / 86% NO. In the last 24 hours, $115K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 14%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 24, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 14%, NO 86%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1542957