Markets/Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 03:54 PM UTC

Closes March 24, 2026

Polymarket Price

7%YES

94%NO

Volume 24h

$94K

Liquidity

$41K

Bid / Ask

11% / 11%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-14.3pp

Key Moments

First recorded

26% YES

Mar 9, 2026

Trough probability

1% YES — lowest in period

Mar 17, 2026

Biggest move: -20.7pp

26% → 5%

Mar 10, 2026

Current

11% YES (+0.1pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 7%99%

Buy YES@ 7¢

Edge

+7.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 94¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+7.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?" at 7% YES / 93% NO. In the last 24 hours, $94K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 7%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on March 24, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 7%, NO 93%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1542982