Markets/Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 06:01 AM UTC

Closes July 20, 2026

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

13%YES

87%NO

Volume 24h

$300K

Liquidity

$1.3M

Bid / Ask

13% / 13%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

13%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

2026

Full event →

23 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-0.3pp

Key Moments

First recorded

13% YES

Feb 21, 2026

Current

13% YES (-0.1pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 13%99%

Buy YES@ 13¢

Edge

+0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.1%

½ Kelly0.0%

Buy NO@ 87¢

-0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" at 13% YES / 87% NO. In the last 24 hours, $300K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 13%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on July 20, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 13%, NO 87%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/558935