Markets/Will Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Will Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 09:41 AM UTC

Closes April 4, 2026

Polymarket Price

9%YES

91%NO

Volume 24h

$36K

Liquidity

$281K

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 9%99%

Buy YES@ 9¢

Edge

+3.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.3%

½ Kelly0.2%

Buy NO@ 91¢

-0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+3.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?" at 9% YES / 91% NO. In the last 24 hours, $36K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 9%. The market closes on April 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 9%, NO 91%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/658929

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