Markets/Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 06:37 AM UTC

Closes October 4, 2026

Polymarket Price

66%YES

35%NO

Volume 24h

$1K

Liquidity

$11K

Bid / Ask

64% / 68%

Spread

4.00pp

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 66%99%

Buy YES@ 66¢

Edge

+0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.4%

½ Kelly0.7%

Buy NO@ 35¢

-1.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.8% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" at 66% YES / 34% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. The bid-ask spread is 4.00 percentage points. The market closes on October 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 66%, NO 34%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1365861

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