Markets/Will Germany strike Iran by March 31?

Will Germany strike Iran by March 31?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 01:34 PM UTC

Polymarket Price

1%YES

99%NO

Volume 24h

$14K

Liquidity

$24K

Bid / Ask

1% / 1%

Spread

0.20pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+66.7pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-2.7pp

Key Moments

First recorded

4% YES

Mar 1, 2026

Biggest move: -10.7pp

18% → 7%

Mar 3, 2026

Peak probability

18% YES — highest in period

Mar 2, 2026

Current

1% YES (-0.1pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 1%99%

Buy YES@ 1¢

-16.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢

Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly16.7%

½ Kelly8.3%

Buy NO—+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 16.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Germany strike Iran by March 31?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $14K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Germany strike Iran by March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1472016

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