Markets/Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?

Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 12:46 PM UTC

Closes July 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

60%YES

41%NO

Volume 24h

$316

Liquidity

$32K

Bid / Ask

57% / 59%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

60%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-3.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

69% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Current

66% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 60%99%

Buy YES@ 60¢

Edge

+0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.2%

½ Kelly0.6%

Buy NO@ 41¢

-1.2%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.8% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.2%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?" at 60% YES / 40% NO. In the last 24 hours, $316 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 60%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on July 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 60%, NO 40%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/573647

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