Markets/Will Intercontinental Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?

Will Intercontinental Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 05:45 PM UTC

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

11%YES

89%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

$1K

Bid / Ask

5% / 17%

Spread

12.30pp

Expert Signal

11%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+36.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

32% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Trough probability

22% YES — lowest in period

Feb 28, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

55%

Mar 1, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

47%

Mar 3, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

70%

Mar 5, 2026

Biggest move: +23.0pp

47% → 70%

Mar 5, 2026

Peak probability

73% YES — highest in period

Mar 5, 2026

Current

69% YES (-2.5pp recent)

Mar 5, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 11%99%

Buy YES@ 11¢

Edge

+3.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.4%

½ Kelly0.2%

Buy NO@ 89¢

-0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+3.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Intercontinental Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?" at 11% YES / 89% NO. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 11%. The bid-ask spread is 12.30 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Intercontinental Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 11%, NO 89%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/693781