Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Closes May 31, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$981
Liquidity
$7K
Bid / Ask
67% / 70%
Spread
3.00pp
Expert Signal
68%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Vicky Dávila win the 1st round of the 2026…
2026
13 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
74% YES
Mar 10, 2026
Trough probability
66% YES — lowest in period
Mar 19, 2026
Biggest move: -10.0pp
76% → 66%
Mar 19, 2026
Peak probability
80% YES — highest in period
Mar 11, 2026
Current
68% YES (+1.0pp recent)
Mar 20, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.7%
EV per $ wagered
-1.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?" at 68% YES / 32% NO. In the last 24 hours, $981 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 68%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on May 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 68%, NO 32%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/569343
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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